Just like that, Week six of the NFL season is upon us, and there are still a plethora of winless teams in fantasy leagues. This week, we examined who to start based on various metrics, including target share, catch percentage, and defensive ranking. Injuries have plagued the running back position, but there is still hope as three backup running backs scored in the top 10 for the position last week. Let’s see who this week’s locks and flops are.
Lineup Locks for Week Six:
Quarterbacks:
Matthew Stafford (vs. BAL):
The Los Angeles Rams face off against the Baltimore Ravens, who are missing six key starters on defense and may be without their MVP quarterback, Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens’ defense allowed 44 points to the Houston Texans and is now the second-worst fantasy defense against quarterbacks, yielding 28.2 points per game. Stafford averaged 8.3 yards per attempt last week against the 49ers, and that number could skyrocket against a defense missing key players on the other side of the ball. Stafford is coming off back-to-back games of 25 or more fantasy points, and could be looking at another on Sunday.
Caleb Williams (vs. WAS):
Coming off the bye week, the Chicago Bears have a tall task this Sunday against the Washington Commanders, who themselves are coming off a 17-point victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. However, the Commanders give up the 10th most points to quarterbacks with 21.2, which is a plus for Caleb Williams, who is coming off an underwhelming performance in week four, scoring only 11 fantasy points. Williams is averaging 20.5 points per game with his added rushing ability this season, which may put him back inside the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks this season.
Running Backs:
Hassan Haskins (vs. MIA):
Many people are unfamiliar with the University of Michigan alum who stands at 6’2″ and weighs 227 pounds. The 2022 fourth-round pick is expected to receive the majority of the touches this Sunday as the Los Angeles Chargers face off against the Miami Dolphins. Omarion Hampton, who was having a special season, has been placed on injury reserve due to an ankle injury and will miss at least four games. Playing the sixth-worst defense against running backs, Haskins is a must-start.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. CHI):
“Bill,” as he likes to be called, had the first 100-yard rushing game in his young career, scoring two touchdowns last week. The Washington Commanders face an exploitable Chicago Bears rush defense, which allows 141 rushing yards per game. Croskey-Merritt has yet to reach a snap percentage of 50% as he shares the Commanders’ backfield with two other backs, but he has the potential to become the lead back in Washington. Croskey-Merritt is a must start this Sunday, and is poised for a big day.
Wide Receivers:
Tetairoa McMillian (vs. DAL):
As a rookie, McMillian is sitting as the eighth most targeted player in the NFL, ahead of guys like Justin Jefferson, Trey McBride, and Ja’Marr Chase. McMillian has a superb matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers, with a shocking 30 fantasy points per game. McMillian has an impressive 36.27% target share, which is in the upper echelon of receivers, but has a harsh catch percentage of 55.81%. This means McMillian gets the targets, but the ball is often uncatchable or knocked away. Bryce Young is looking his way more and more every week, and against Dallas, he has a chance to shine.
Marvin Harrison Jr (vs. IND):
Taking a closer look at the Arizona Cardinals’ offense, Marvin Harrison Jr. has been the second option next to stud tight end Trey McBride. Harrison has run 187 routes and on those routes has been targeted at an abysmal .17% which isn’t a winning formula for fantasy. The upside is that the Cardinals’ Offensive Coordinator, Drew Petzing, felt he didn’t do enough to get Harrison the ball after his 75-yard first half. Going up against the Indianapolis Colts, who have the seventh-worst against wide receivers, giving up 23.2 fantasy points a game, which is why Harrison can get his season on track this Sunday versus the Colts.
Tight Ends:
Tucker Kraft (vs. CIN):
The Green Bay Packers love to spread the ball around, but have been looking to Kraft most of the time. Kraft has the 12th-highest target shares among tight ends, at 18.18%, which leads the Packers by a wide margin. Additionally, he faces the second-worst defense against tight ends who allowed Sam Laporta to score 20.2 fantasy points while having 18.4 yards per catch in week five. Tucker Kraft is a must-start, with the tools to put together a top-five scoring week.
David Njoku (vs. PIT):
The Cleveland Browns have traded Joe Flacco and are leaning on rookie Dillion Gaberial for the foreseeable future. Gabriel targeted Njoku nine times, boosting his target share on the year to 16.11% which is best for 16th among tight ends. The Browns have a division matchup versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, who give up the third most fantasy points to tight ends, with 10.5, adding to why Njoku is a must-start this week.
Lineup Flops:
Quarterbacks:
Justin Fields (vs. DEN):
The New York Jets are the only team in the league without a win, and this week is an uphill battle to get one. The Denver Broncos have the second-best defense in the NFL against quarterbacks, allowing only 14.2 fantasy points a game, making them one of the stingiest defenses this season. Fields is a lineup flop as it will be difficult for him to do anything through the air on Sunday.
Runningbacks:
Alvin Kamara (vs. NE):
The New Orleans Saints used to rely heavily on Kamara, but this season, in a new offense with Spencer Rattler behind the center and Kellen Moore’s latest scheme, Kamara has been cut out. He has a career-low 12.21% target share and only 17 catches through five games, indicating Kamara isn’t getting the receiving production he is used to in his prior years. The Saints host the New England Patriots, who are seventh in fantasy points allowed to running backs, with 12.6 points per game, limiting Kamara’s ceiling.
Wide Receivers:
Zay Flowers (vs. LAR):
Without Lamar Jackson in the offense, the Baltimore Ravens only scored 10 points in week five against an aggressive Houston Texans defense. Flowers has a monster catch percentage with 77.78%, and is getting 0.25% of targets on his 146 routes run this season. This is all good things, but when you don’t have Lamar Jackson as your quarterback, it’s tough to change your style. The Ravens take on the 17th-ranked defense against wide receivers. This being said, Flowers is a must-sit this week if Lamar Jackson doesn’t play, and that is looking unlikely as he hasn’t practiced this week due to a hamstring injury.
Tight Ends:
Dalton Kincaid:
The Atlanta Falcons have dominated tight ends, allowing them to score just 1.5 fantasy points per game, meaning they are the toughest matchup for any tight end. Kincaid only has a 16.11% target share, with his career high in targets coming last week with six against the New England Patriots. Dalton Kincaid is the second-highest scoring tight end this season, but could be on the decline as the Buffalo Bills’ schedule gets harder.
